Andreas Hadjiyannis, founder of Cyprus Sea Lines and head of the Cyprus Union of Shipowners, got it famously right last year when he predicted that dry bulk and containership freight rates would dramatically recover over the next few months. This time, he came up with an even bolder assertion.

“I am very, very optimistic,” he said addressing an audience at the 15th Maritime Cyprus conference in Limassol this week. “I think we have come from the worst shipping crisis in our lifetime. The previous was in 1929. The next will be in the 22nd century. So I don’t think that any of us here lived in the previous one or will live in the next one,” he said. “Of course there will be the usual cycles, but the big, big crisis is over,” he added.

To back up his view, Hadjiyannis noted that 2016 marked record scrapping and 2018 will mark record low newbuilding deliveries.

Clearing tanker clouds
George Procopiou, another major owner to make a rare panel appearance, said there wasn’t even reason for gloom and doom in the tanker market, which has been left behind in the shipping recovery of recent months.

“The tanker era is not over and will be around for many years,” he told the audience. Procopiou said he expected energy prices to remain low for a long time, boosting the world economy and oil cargo stems with it.

“We can see oil at $10 per barrel,” he said.

The US economy will particularly benefit from low energy prices. “Mr Trump came to make America great again. The American train started years ago and he put himself in front of it with a flag,” said the principal of Greek shipowner Dynacom Tankers.

Procopiou added the caveat that the sanctions era was coming back, with sanctions against Russia and later possibly Iran threatening to take a bite off global growth. That, however, didn’t weaken his overall assessment that “fundamentals are there for a sustainable increase in dry cargo and tankers”.

Chinese yards change gear
The Greek shipowner also carried good news from the supply side, suggesting that aggressive newbuilding construction in China was no longer on the cards.
“I came last Tuesday from China. The shipyards are not anymore building at a loss. They are prohibited from accepting loss orders,” said Procopiou, who has old links to the country.

Most private yards have shut down and those that survived are strong enough to survive. Chinese banks and leasing companies are not financing projects causing losses to shipyards any longer. “The excesses of the past are no longer there,” he said. The story was the same in Korea. “These are good news for shipowners,” Procopiou said.

Charting dry rate rise
Panos Laskarides of Lavinia Corp, another traditional owner on the panel, agreed the situation looked good but that dry bulk shipping markets still have a long way to go. “I think we’re looking forward to maybe two or three years of a steady rise in rates,” he said.

“Everybody is happy because we’re not at the catastrophic profit levels we were last year – but we’re still miles from making good money,” he said. “We’re hopeful that things will look up, and if supply and demand do not match and do not help, we can always prey to the Almighty.”