18-11-2022 Capesize bulkers sink amid China uncertainty while smaller ships idle, By Michael Juliano, TradeWinds
The spot rate market for capesize bulkers dropped like a stone this past week as uncertainty around China’s economy continued, while that for the smaller vessels stagnated due to meagre fixture activity. The Baltic Exchange’s Capesize 5TC basket of spot rate averages across five key routes plummeted 27.3% since 11 November to $9,305 per day on Friday. The C5 iron-ore route from western Australia to Qingdao, China slid 11.3% over the past seven days to $7.83 per tonne on Friday. “West Australian miners were active throughout the week taking a good number of vessels in the spot market,” Baltic Exchange analysts wrote on Friday in their weekly dry-bulk market wrap up.
“Yet the fact that the C5 continues to drop is a telling sign of the health of the market. While there are expectations and reports of stimulus from China to help revive its economy, little signs of life have trickled down to the freight market,” they said. “Without any such stimulus, it looks like an increasingly dire prospect ahead in the short term for the capesize market.” The capesize futures market was in backwardation on Friday, reflecting this gloomy outlook. December contracts declined 3% on Friday to $8,561 per day, while November contracts slipped 2.2% on Friday to $6,043 per day.
Fortescue Metals Group fixed an unnamed capesize on Friday to ship 160,000 tonnes of iron ore from Port Hedland, Australia to China at $7.95 per tonne after loading the ship from 1 to 3 December. Rio Tinto hired an unnamed capesize on 10 November to ship 170,000 tonnes of ore on the same route at $8.30 per tonne after loading the vessel from 15 to 17 November. Meanwhile, spot rates for the panamaxes, supramaxes and handysizes fell less than $500 per day over the entire week as most vessels waited for work.
The Panamax 5TC ticked down a mere 0.2% from 11 November to $14,343 per day on Friday. “Week on week, the panamax market witnessed only minor corrections,” the analysts wrote. “However, we end the week on a clear negative tone.” They noted that tonnage grew in the Continent and Mediterranean regions, despite Russia rejoining the Baltic Sea Grain Initiative on 2 November. “This brought with it softer levels, as demand for transatlantic trips offer minimal returns.”
The Supramax 10TC slid 3.6% over the seven-day period to $12,870 per day on Friday. “Brokers said it was an unexciting week as the Atlantic remained rather positional,” they wrote. “The only strengthening was seen from the US Gulf, but mainly for trips to the Far East whilst transatlantic runs did not offer such premiums.” The Handysize 7TC slipped 3.2% over the past week to $13,727 per day on Friday. “A very subdued week, certainly within the Atlantic,” the analyst said. “Brokers said limited fresh enquiry was seen in many areas and downward pressure generally remained across the board.”