John Michael Radziwill-led GoodBulk is expecting strong bulker rates this year as fleet growth remains low and port congestion continues. The Monaco-based capesize specialist said net profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 was $36.5m, against $7.6m the year before. Revenue was up from $41.7m to $93.4m. Annual profit hit $92m, against a loss of $4.5m in the previous 12 months.

“Currently, the outlook for 2022 is for a strong rate environment and much like in 2021 this is owing to low fleet growth, possible strong congestion that will be maintained by the record high container rates, at least for part of the year, and good demand volumes,” the Norway-listed shipowner said.

The company views the main risks to rates as being potential aggressive moves by China to cap commodity imports to prioritize domestic output instead, as well as industrial production being affected by a resurgence in Covid-19 cases. The drought in South America will reduce grain exports from the region and the Russian invasion of Ukraine could have a negative impact on grain exports and on other commodities, GoodBulk believes.

“These tensions, on the other hand, could also be a positive for dry bulk tonne-miles in the longer term if they reshuffle trade flows,” the company said.

GoodBulk managed an average time charter equivalent (TCE) rate of $31,666 per day on the capesize vessels, and $27,223 per day for the single panamax bulker. For the first quarter of 2022, the company has fixed about 98% of its capesize days at about $18,000 per vessel per day, a 23% premium to the market. In the fourth quarter, the bulker sector saw a reversal in the upward trend that had lasted most of the year, GoodBulk said. This decline in rates continued into January 2022, but eventually bottomed out at the end of the month.

Heavier than normal rainfall in southern Brazil hampered mining and logistical operations, which led to the weakest January in seven years in terms of iron ore exports.

The owner’s cash balance was $39.7m at the end of the year.