Comprising nearly 60% of global aluminum production and approximately 85% of total bauxite imports, China dominates these trades. Annual bauxite imports have risen from 52 MMT in 2016 to 107 MMT in 2021 and at 86.5 MMT (+ 13.5 MMT YoY) in the first eight months look set to be a record in 2022.

Imports from Guinea have risen exponentially since the early shipments of 2015 and up to August this year total 48 MMT (+8.7 MMT YoY) as China has invested heavily in both Guinea’s inland logistics as well as transhippers and floating terminals to enable virtually all the cargo to now be carried by Capesize tonnage. Imports from Australia, the second largest supplier, have remained steady at 22.5 MMT to date with their bauxite export ports of Groote Eylandt, Gove and Weipa operating at almost full capacity, with the vast majority carried on Post Panamax tonnage from the latter two ports. With an export ban from Indonesia imminent at the end of the year, China has clearly ramped up imports from Indonesia, up 45% YoY to 14.8 MMT, the lion’s share of which is transported in Supramax tonnage.

However, there is growing evidence that China may not be able to absorb such additional quantities of bauxite as with industrial production faltering, since Q2 exports of refined alumina have sharply increased to 1.5 MMT up 0.6 MMT YoY whilst imports of alumina have nearly halved to 1.1 MMT.