March has been highly profitable, and with the need to search for alternative cargoes, the outlook is strong for dry bulk. China remains paramount in the bulk carrier pantheon. This is becoming increasingly worrisome for the bulk carrier market, as the urgent issues in President Xi’s in-tray stack up in a year he would have wished would go smoothly as he seeks a constitution-busting third term in office. As the cult of personality builds around him, he must take on personal responsibility for a slowly imploding property market, managing the pandemic, rising energy and commodity prices driving factory gate and foodstuff inflation, China’s response to the war in Ukraine, ongoing strategic competition with the US and a stalled Belt and Road Initiative.

The resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic has caused lockdowns across swathes of the country’s most important industrial areas, such that 30% of Chinese GDP is now said to be shuttered. If this lasts for a month, it could wipe 1% off Chinese GDP growth this year. It is affecting steel production in key areas such as Tangshan, a city which produces around 13% of all Chinese steel, but where output has been suspended at many mills due to public health measures. This is driving up steel futures prices and the prospects of reactive monetary loosening by the People’s Bank of China. The bank now has a fine balancing act to perform between supporting industrial activity and exports but not overheating the already oversupplied housing market. Steel analysts in China describe the market as rangebound and cautious. Landed iron ore prices in China were $150.75 a tonne on March 25 having begun the year at $114.60. Coking coal prices, rallied from mid-2020, from $300 to $670 a tonne by September 2021, have recently fallen to below $450 a tonne amid bearish sentiment with the Tangshan lockdown quoted by market reporters.

The consequences in the bulk shipping markets have been muted. Capesize freight rates from Australia to China stood at $8.86 on February 21 (a TCE of $15,331) then enjoyed three firm weeks to peak at $12.38 on March 15 before giving up some gains to end up at $11.64 on March 25, a TCE of $15,648. On Brazil to China, the TCE was $11,986 on February 21, peaked at $19,232 on March 15 and subsided to $12,795 on March 25. Shipping Strategy analysts estimate that Australia will export 210m tonnes of iron ore in Q1 this year and Brazil 70m tonnes compared to 219m tonnes and 78m tonnes respectively in Q1 2021. All in all, Q1 this year is a damp squib for Chinese iron ore demand. Still, month on month the Baltic Capesize Index was up 12% to 1,887 points on March 25. Life is even better for panamax operators, who have enjoyed a rising market for a month now. The Baltic Panamax Index stood at 3,413 points on March 25, up 28% in a month, as panamax cargoes increased 18% to 110 MMT in the first three weeks of March compared to all of February.

Ukraine, the fourth biggest exporter of wheat and coarse grains, shipped almost 50 MMT of wheat, barley, sunflower seeds, etc. to global destinations last year, with 11 MMT going to China, 4.6 MMT to Egypt and 3.6 MMT each to the Netherlands and Turkey. The Ukraine government says a disrupted planting season this year will result in at least a 50% fall in the harvest. As Ukraine’s Black Sea port approaches remain mined, any exports will have to find alternative routes out. Russia shipped around 20.5 MMT of grains by sea last year, of which 3.7 MMT went to Turkey and about the same amount to Egypt, with most grains loading at Novorossiysk. If Egypt and Turkey are not to suffer significant food inflation and possibly social unrest, they will need the support of other suppliers.

China, the biggest wheat importer globally, has this month warned that its winter wheat crop condition is “the worst in history”. Agriculture minister Tang Renjian reports that heavy rainfall last year delayed the planting of about one-third of the normal wheat acreage and that the harvest may be down 20% this year. Wheat prices are at 15-year highs and will rise further this year, pressuring many of the poorest countries in the world. The US, Brazil and Argentina all shipped over 100 MMT each of wheat and coarse grains in 2021. The grain seasons from those countries this year should prove very busy, to the delight of panamax bulker owners.

Russia shipped almost 17 MMT of steel in 2021 as well as 1.5 MMT of iron ore. Ukraine exported around 5.5 MMT by sea plus 9 MMT of iron ore. Those figures may be significantly lower this year, certainly the Ukrainian figures, as tens of thousands of steel workers are currently occupied in the National Defence Force. The relevant freight market, Baltic route S1B, from the Black Sea eastwards, stood at $30,654 on February 21, sliding gently to a low of $18,992 on March 10 before perking up a bit to $22,763 on March 25.

Lockdowns in China may prevent it from repeating its 53 MMT of steel exports of 2021, when it led the world, again. Globally tight steel markets could see construction corporates scouring the globe for alternative sources of supply, to the delight of geared bulk carrier operators, for whom steel is a key cargo. Already in the first three weeks of March, nearly 15 MMT of steel products were loaded onto geared bulk carriers worldwide, compared to less than 12 MMT in each of January and February. The biggest increase came from Europe, where an extra 1.5 MMT were loaded in the first three weeks of March compared to all of February. The result in the freight markets has been a 25% month on month increase in the Baltic Supramax Index to 3,020 points on March 25 and a 27% increase in the Baltic Handysize Index to 1,782 points on March 25. The supramax 10TC average is up 25% to $33,217 a day and the handysize 7TC average is up 27% to $32,082. Truly, the capesize market has become decoupled from the freight markets for smaller ships. Nonetheless, the BDI is running ahead of Q1 last year and market bulls look to have the wind in their sails for the time being.