Richards Bay coal exports slow in November

According to AXS vessel tracking data, coal shipments out of Richards Bay in South Africa have slowed to an average 122,000 tonnes per day so far in November, a decrease of 32.4% YoY. This puts exports on track to total 3.7 MMT this month. he slowdown follows the derailing of 97 coal wagons on the route from inland mines to Richards Bay earlier in November.

South Africa has seen a surge in demand for its coal from Europe amid the continent’s ongoing energy shortages. EU imports of South African coal have totaled 15.2 MMT so far in 2022, compared to 2.3 MMT in the whole of 2021. European countries imported 2.7 MMT of South African coal in October following minimal disruptions at South African ports in September, though this declined by 33.3% in October following several weeks of industrial action. Another factor driving slower exports is South Africa’s now largest customers’ demand in Europe is slowing. In October, European countries imported 10.9 MMT of coal, the lowest level since March. Most EU coal has been redirected from India and China, as European buyers are willing to pay a premium. Thus, overall exports only grew by less than 0.1% in the first 10 months of 2022, with shipments to India declining by 18.2% to 17.1 MMT and to China by 96.1% to 220k tonnes.

Exports of record Russian wheat harvest pick up in November

According to AXS data, Russian wheat exports have totaled 3.9 MMT so far in November, putting monthly shipments on track to more than double YoY to 4.5 MMT if the current export pace is sustained.

The USDA estimates Russia will export a record 91 MMT of wheat during the 2022/23 marketing year (commencing June), up 21.1% YoY and 16.4% above the 5 year average. Producers had been struggling to export wheat due to US and European sanctions. While Russian wheat is not sanctioned, it has become harder for buyers to transfer foreign funds into the country. Many ships and insurers have also been hesitant to take on even non-sanctioned Russian business. These constraints appear to have eased this month, helped by strong Turkish demand. Shipments to Turkey totaled 1.5 MMT in November, an almost three-fold increase YoY. Previously being an importer of Ukrainian wheat, Turkey has replaced these lost volumes with Russian wheat.

Turkey’s wheat imports are forecast by the USDA to increase by 6.1% YoY in 2022/23 to 10 MMT, as it seeks to replenish stocks. According to the USDA, Turkey’s 2022 wheat stocks are 40% lower YoY, largely due to disruptions to global wheat trade following the war in Ukraine.