Dry bulk is setting sail for best year since 2010. What a comeback and the longer this rally sticks around, confidence builds in the sector. In the first place only the perma-bulls claimed that they saw this run coming from miles away. Today it’s clear to all; Chinese stimulus catapulted the economy away from the Covid abyss – and then some – by boosting all sectors that rely on imported dry bulk commodities.

What’s happening?

While the Chinese Communist Party is busy celebrating themselves one thing is for sure: the great wall of steel – those that dare to stand up to China will face real steel. And the workers at the steel mills are for sure Chinese. All of them. Maybe this is the real reason behind the cut of rebates in steel export tax from May 1 – they need the steel themselves to fortify the ancient Great Wall of China.

When a commodity is in trouble, you as a trader should double. So, the saying goes. That seems also to be the conclusion when reading the tea leaves after Glencore bought all the shares held by BHP and Anglo American, to become the sole owner of the northeastern Columbian Cerrejon thermal coal mine. This open pit mine is the tenth largest in the world and holds mainly low ash, low sulphur content coal. Capesize coal cargoes offered into the Atlantic basin for another 30 years is clearly good news for the sector.

Still, this trader’s bet may be more on prices than output produced and exported. Splash Extra believes that coal cargoes will be amongst the ones to look out for over the coming months, as Chinese buyers wait for more import quotas to be dished out, and Far Eastern coal demand in general is strong.

The usual suspect that always ruins the party has gone mad. As in, this time may actually be different.

If we forget about the handysize sector, just as the Baltic Exchange would want us to, the three main sectors have seen year-on-year fleet growth decline from 4.7%, 6.3% and 4.6% in July last year to 3.8%, 3.5% and 3.7% in July 2021. This sliding trend in deliveries must be combined with owners holding back placing orders for new ships, even though freight rates are strong.

Splash Extra would like to believe that this time around may actually be different. Still, another 53m dwt are currently on the orderbooks, and by the end of 2022, we might even see an active fleet of more than 1bn dwt. Cross your fingers that China won’t deviate from its current strategy of sourcing raw materials for securing its economic growth. And that they won’t cut carbon emissions from heavy industries earlier than 2030. As the use of unabated coal declines, don’t bet on a high burn rate for coal with carbon capture, utilization, and storage to save the day.