Corn planting area is now 78% of last year’s levels despite initial official estimated that 30% of the area would be lost. Market participants estimate the corn crop to range from 22-28 MMT, with most analytical forecast placing the figure in the middle of the range. 2021’s corn production saw 42 MMT of corn harvested, but 2020 only reached 28 MMT due to droughts and hot temperatures, with the figure seemingly in reach once again even as the war continues.

As for wheat, most of the output stems from the winter crop, which was planted before the invasion, but portions of the productive area are within Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson which are contested regions. The market forecast for wheat crop stands in the 17-21 MMT range, factoring out contested regions. If these were included the harvest, it should have been between 24-26 MMT.

Production of grain remains sizable despite on-going conflict, but sellers are still set to face challenges with harvesting, storing, transporting, and exporting.