According to industry sources, during September, global crude steel production amounted to 144.4 MMT – split between 73.8 MMT in China and 70.6 MMT for the rest of the world. Steel production in China was down 9.4 MMT MOM, while steel production outside China was down just 3.0 MMT. YTD, steel production outside China is thus up 6.8 MMT (or 11%) and has therefore negated some of the recent Chinese weakness.

The broader dry bulk recovery beyond Chinese demand has been an important theme of the recent dry bulk upcycle, and we are encouraged by the diverse drivers for an improved market. Still, China certainly remains the most decisive factor for dry bulk freight rates, and especially the Capesizes, as 76% of seaborne iron ore volumes went to China in 2020.