The reeling capesize bulker market reached its lowest point since May 2020 on Friday after another week of spiraling downward, but China may have provided hope for some sort of turnaround. The Baltic Exchange’s Capesize 5TC, a spot-rate average across five key routes, dropped 46% over the past week to $3,413 per day on Friday, marking the lowest figure in roughly 27 months.

Clarksons Securities analyst Frode Morkedal pointed out that this average rate pertains only to capesizes of up to 10 years old that are non-eco vessels and not fitted with exhaust gas scrubbers. He said that Clarksons estimates that capesize eco-vessels, those with fuel saving technology, could earn $10,100 per day. The firm estimated a non-eco vessel with a scrubber could make $12,600 per day. An eco-vessel with a scrubber could possibly bring in $15,700 per day. “The fact that non-eco vessels are being pushed down to $3,400 per day versus operating expenses of more than $6,000 per day, indicates a significant overhang of ships, with the market currently being driven by eco- or scrubber-equipped vessels,” he wrote in a note on Friday.

Morkedal predicted that the average spot rate for non-eco capesizes will reach $14,500 per day in the fourth quarter based on the futures market, which Clarksons considers to be “a conservative market outlook” for that type of capesize, he said. The Baltic Exchange’s forward freight agreement (FFA) rate for the three-month period lost $77 on Friday to land at $13,895 per day. But Morkedal also pointed to reports of a stimulus boost from Beijing. China has raised its latest economic stimulus package by 17.2% to a whopping CNY6.8trn ($1trn), earmarking most of that money toward infrastructure projects. This cash infusion toward erecting new infrastructure could mean better days ahead for capesize spot rates, which are driven by China’s demand for the iron ore that it imports for new construction.

For now, Baltic Exchange analysts are scratching their heads as to how much further the 5TC will descend, having plummeted 99% since mid-July. “With rates so low and the outlook remaining poor, there is some speculation as to how far the sector will, and can, go,” they wrote on Friday in their weekly wrap up of the dry bulk market. They said that the Atlantic Basin “has fallen dramatically from grace” as the spot rate for the transatlantic C8 roundtrip voyage between Brazil and Europe cascaded 61% over the week to $3,111 per day on Friday. “Scrubber-fitted vessels were heard to be particularly aggressive in the region on the little cargo availability,” the analysts said. They also noticed that the transpacific West Australia-to-China C5 trip settled at $7.625 per tonne on Friday as China’s iron-ore demand continued to fall.

Seacon Shipping Group fixed an unnamed capesize owned by a company listed only as Anglo on Thursday to ship 180,000 tonnes of ore from Western Australia to Qingdao, China, at $7.50 per tonne after it gets loaded from 12 to 15 September. Pacbulk Shipping hired an unnamed capesize a week earlier to move 170,000 tonnes of the commodity on the same route at $7.50 per tonne. Loading is set for 2 to 4 September.

“It remains to be seen what the upcoming week holds in store for the sector,” the Baltic analysts said.