Cape owners are not yet worried about the spot rate slide, though they will not want to see much more of an erosion. Several said they were able to cope with the current market, which has dipped below $6,000 per day. Spot capesize rates fell to $5,826 per day at the close on the Baltic Exchange on January 26, the lowest level since early June 2020.   

The market has been trading at loss-making levels for almost two weeks, although the average for the month so far is at about $13,500 per day, at breakeven for some owners. John Michael Radziwill, chief executive of C Transport Maritime, said most routes were running below operating costs and vessels were steaming at “eco and super eco” speeds where possible. “The current market is a product of a severe rainy season in Brazil hampering iron ore production and exports, Indonesia’s coal export issues and China’s winter pollution controls,” he told Lloyd’s List.

However, market fundamentals show that 2022 is looking like it will be “another robust year” given “very limited fleet growth and strong cargo volumes,” he said. “We believe the current situation will provide a ‘coiled spring’ for capesize rates once the above-mentioned and temporary phenomena hurting day rates are behind us.” Being in the Capesize Chartering pool, which has more than 100 vessels, had also cushioned some of the negative impact of current rates, he added.

Golden Ocean chief executive Ulrik Andersen said his company, which also has a fleet of panamaxes, was able to weather the current slump as it built up positions in the latter half of last year and as such is only 50% exposed to the spot market. “We can stomach this,” he said. “We can get through the first-quarter and still be profitable, we’ll still be in a comfortable position.” Mr Andersen expects a rebound to come after the Chinese New Year and winter Olympics being held in Beijing next month, which has stymied demand. The optimism comes as the forward curve — the third quarter and fourth quarter in particular — are priced above $25,000 per day at current values, although they have softened slightly from previous sessions. In any case, Cal ’22 is trading at about the $22,000 mark, according to estimates, which is above operating costs.

Stamatis Tsantanis, chief executive of pure play capesize owner Seanergy also said that he expected the market to recover significantly within the next few weeks. “Despite the seasonal market weakness, we expect that supply and demand fundamentals will result in a strong recovery of capesize rates,” he said in a recent update. “Our solid balance sheet, modern fleet and strong relationships with world leading charterers in combination with our substantial operating leverage place Seanergy in an optimal position to generate strong revenues and profitability in an improving charter rate environment”. As a result of the company’s “proactive hedging strategy” in the second half of last year, Seanergy should outperform the current spot market by about 50% this quarter, he said. The Greece-based company estimates earnings of about $19,000 per day this quarter, following a fourth-quarter average of about $36,000 per day.

Norway’s 2020 Bulkers has achieved average time-charter equivalent earnings of about $22,400 per day, gross, so far this quarter. It reported net profit of $26.3m in the fourth quarter, with gross average earnings of about $52,900 per day.