Capes might have cracked the $50,000 mark in recent days, but analysts caution that underlying fundamentals are not in place for any kind of supercharged super cycle. It is a temporary collision of factors that have sent rates for all dry bulk classes skyward.

The key factor this month is not about demand, but rather port congestion as many authorities, led by China, add a host of Covid-related precautionary measures for ships calling. More dry bulk ships are tied up by port congestion than ever before, according to research from brokers Braemar ACM.

Bulk carrier queues around the world hit a peak of almost 142m dwt on August 15 with China accounting for more than a third of this congestion. A remarkable 16% of the global dry bulk fleet is tied up by port congestion.

Analysts at international ship owning organization BIMCO this month sought to downplay talk of a dry bulk super cycle. The value of dry bulk ships is far below the last super cycle levels. A comparison of the value of a five-year-old capesize ship today with August 2008 shows how big the difference is. In August 2008, the ship could be traded for around $153m. Today it could yield just $38m. Although well below 2008 levels, this is still the highest level since December 2014.

“Commodity prices have staged a comeback and are hovering around or above 2007 and 2008 levels. This has fueled talk of a commodity super cycle. However, while dry bulk freight rates and ship values are currently high compared to the past 10 years, they are very far from earnings seen during 2007-2008 and there is little to suggest that they are heading that way,” commented Peter Sand, BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst.