Agricultural analysts warn of food shortages as farmers scale back their usage of fertilizers amid supply disruption stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Corn, soy, rice, and wheat yields around the world stand to suffer amid lower yields.

Sanctions on Russia and Belarus target key types of fertilizers. In 2021, both nations accounted for more than 40% of global exports of potash, with Russia supplying 22% global exports of ammonia, 14% of urea and about 14% of monoammonium phosphate (MAP). Further, the heightened gas prices have significantly increased sulphur-based fertilizers production costs.

Farmers in Brazil are applying less fertilizer to their corn fields and are also struggling to secure potash used for soybean production. Some farmers report their soybean harvest might shrink as much as 8% this year. In the US, corn farmers have reacted to the sky rocketing prices similarly as many move to reduce planting acreage and limit application of fertilizer.

Asian buyers have turned to Canada and Israel as many expect China not to lift their fertilizer export restriction. Canadian farmers have in turn begun to bulk buy fertilizers and many believe the issue will remain for the long term , and at least through 2023.