Genco Shipping & Trading is confident that the dry bulk market will continue to improve amid low supply, despite Russia’s attack on Ukraine on Thursday. Any disruption to commodities out of Ukraine should not have a major sector impact against a very low orderbook, chief executive John Wobensmith said. “I think overall as a macro view, with the low supply and the low orderbook in dry bulk shipping, you just don’t need much demand growth overall to continue to build on 2021,” he said on Thursday during a fourth quarter earnings call with analysts. He said Ukraine does export corn, wheat, and iron ore, but major producers Brazil, Australia and the US could easily offset any commodity shortfall from Ukraine because of Russian invasion. “We do believe that the US could make it up if there were significant cutbacks on the grain side, so that could be a tonne-mile increase there,” he said. “So, we still believe in the cyclical upturn.”

The Baltic Dry Index on Thursday fell 57 points to 2,187 points as the capesize 5TC, which takes the average spot rate across five key routes, slid 8.8% to $15,856 per day. On the other end of the dry bulk spectrum, the handysize 7TC edged up 2.2% to $24,914 per day.

Rio Tinto on Wednesday fixed an unnamed capesize to ship 170,000 tonnes of iron ore from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao, China at $10.30 per tonne. Loading will happen from 10 to 12 March. On the previous day, Rio Tinto hired Capital Executive Ship Management’s 178,900-dwt Attikos (built 2012) to carry the same volume of ore on the same route at $9.40 per tonne. Loading is set for 9 to 11 March.

And Ukraine produces most of its grains in August anyway, he said. “We’re quite some time away from that,” he said. And Ukraine accounts for a very small part of global iron-ore trade compared with Brazil, Australia, and India, he said. Wobensmith is confident that Genco is well prepared to handle market tremors because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict by keeping to its low-leverage, low-breakeven business model.

“I think it’s a little early, I guess, to see exactly what’s going to go on here,” he said. “There’s a very large group of Ukrainian seafarers around the world, and as far as we’re concerned, the focus should really be on them. Our hearts go out to them and their families, and we hope they stay safe.”