Bulkers could be facing a tough year despite an unusually strong start, according to shipping association BIMCO. China’s aim of moving towards a more consumer-oriented economy will threaten the continuation of 2020’s high growth in imports of dry bulk commodities, which were spurred by infrastructure-supporting stimulus measures, said chief shipping analyst Peter Sand.

“Stimulus packages in the rest of the world have focused more on securing the demand side of the economy — policies that benefit container shipping more than dry bulk,” he said, adding that as the pandemic continues and governments try to support individuals, infrastructure-heavy stimulus projects appear a long way off. There is no guarantee, either, that these projects will materialise, and therefore “cannot be counted on to provide the fuel for a dry bulk recovery”.

“Instead, any recovery will be slow and will vary by sector,” he added. “Overcapacity could once again hamper shipowners’ and operators’ ability to make a profit, especially as currently low bunker prices, which supported profits in 2020, are rising again.”

BIMCO expects fleet growth at 2% this year, the lowest in several years, mainly arising from fewer deliveries. That compares with 3.8% last year. It anticipates about 27m dwt to be delivered this year, compared with 48.9m dwt in 2020, reflecting the lower orderbook which stands at 51.4m dwt, almost half that at the start of 2019. However, it estimates 9m dwt to be demolished in 2021, compared with 15m dwt scrapped last year.