Indian government revokes coal import requirements

India’s government has scaled back an order for domestic utilities to import at least 10% of their thermal coal requirements. The rule was brought in during a heatwave in March and April, which resulted in a coal shortage and widespread power outages. It drove a 58% YoY rise in seaborne thermal coal imports in June and July, which totaled 40 MMT over the two months. 71% of these volumes came from Indonesia, with volumes almost tripling YoY to 28.4 MMT. Panamax vessels were the main beneficiaries, shipping a total of 11.8 MMT of coal to India in June and July, up 97.1% YoY. Capesize volumes also increased by 34.1% YoY, totaling 22.0 MMT.

Monsoon season has since brought colder weather, subsequently easing power demand, allowing many plants to replenish coal stocks. Data from India’s Central Electricity Authority (CEA) shows that, as of 21 August, coal stocks at Indian power stations were at 57% of requirements, totaling 30.8 MMT. This is up 7.3% MoM and up 48.8% from a low of 20.7 MMT on May 15th.

With high global demand for thermal coal, some power stations are still struggling to replenish stocks. Stocks at 76 power stations remain at critical levels, defined by the CEA as below 25% of requirements. While the government mandate has been revoked, local authorities and India’s coal ministry will maintain import requirements for specific regions or plants with low inventory levels.

This should offer some support to Indian thermal coal demand going forwards. Imports have remained strong in August, at 11.3 MMT so far, trending towards a total 17.5 MMT for the month, more than doubling YoY.

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European power prices surge on natural gas supply fears

European power prices have surged over the past week, following an announcement by Gazprom that it will shut the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline for maintenance in September. With Nord Stream 1 already running at only 20% of capacity, European states are struggling to build up energy stockpiles ahead of winter. This has pushed prices for coal, gas, and power to record levels. The base German power year-ahead price closed at €645 per MWh on 22 August, up 35.2% on the previous week. Front-month TTF gas prices closed +25.4% on the previous week at $83 per MMBtu, while ICE one-year Rotterdam coal futures have rallied by 42.9% since 5 August to close at $397.45 per ton on Monday.

Europe’s coal shortage has been exacerbated by delays at ports and low water levels in the Rhine and other key waterways, along which coal is shipped by barge from seaports to inland power stations. With draft restrictions preventing barges from fully loading, coal storage facilities have filled up at ports, limiting Europe’s import capacity in recent weeks. While seaborne EU coal imports more than doubled YoY to 8.9 MMT in May as states trying to move away from Russian gas stockpiled coal, these disruptions and limited global supply led to a 28.7% MoM decline in June. Imports only slightly recovered to 6.6 MMT in July. Water levels in the Rhine have returned to levels required for the full loading of barges in the past few days. Sustained higher water levels should allow for an increase in coal imports and may take some pressure off power supplies.

Europe’s energy security remains dire; with the risk of a longer closure to Nord Stream 1; LNG import capacity limited, we expect European states to increasingly turn back to coal power generation, sustaining seaborne coal demand in the region for the rest of the year. South Africa has seen a notable increase in shipments, following improvements in mine to port rail links. 1.3 MMT of South African coal has already been discharged in August, putting imports on trend to total 2 MMT for the month. This is compared to 300k tonnes across the same month last year.