According to our AIS data, we currently find no material impact from the Eastern European conflict on either Ukraine’s or Russia’s dry bulk exports. However, vessels sailing through either country’s territorial waters are already subject to higher insurance costs, and uncertainties still loom over the severity of pending Western sanctions. 

During 2021, Clarksons estimates that seaborne grain exports from Ukraine and Russia amounted to ~49 MMT (9% of global total) and ~36 MMT (7%), respectively. According to our AIS data, top three export destinations for both Ukraine and Russia in 2021 were China, Egypt, and Turkey – which combined exhibited a lower average sailing distance than the overall grain trade at ~7k nautical miles due to the proximity of Egypt and Turkey.