China has set a fast course to reach its decarbonization goals and achieve its policies to boost domestic energy security. Imports of thermal coal are expected to fall by as much as 25%, mostly from Indonesia and Australia, from 210 MMT in 2019 to an estimated 155 MMT in 2025. China’s demand for Australian coal could fall by up to 40% from 2019, to 30 MMT in 2025, with Australian coking coal shipments expected to fall 30% to 20 MMT.

China is the world’s largest importer with almost 324 MMT of thermal coal imported in 2021, 62% coming from Indonesia and 17% from Russia. China is the biggest market for Indonesia, the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, and reduced imports means Indonesia will be left looking for new buyers and competing more strongly with exporters like Australia and South Africa.

China maintains that by 2060 it will reach the goals set in its “net zero emissions” policy which has it reducing imports by as much as 49% between now and this period.