Economic bright spots are hard to find amongst the gloomy backdrop of the IMF’s latest report which focuses on the ongoing Covid pandemic, war in Ukraine, widening inflation, rising interest rates and, perhaps most importantly for dry cargo, the slowdown in China: “More than a third of the global economy will contract this year or next, while the three largest economies—the United States, the European Union, and China—will continue to stall. In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession.” World Economic Outlook October 2022.

However, growth prospects in the Indian Ocean regions appear comparatively healthy. Except for Sri Lanka, most of its littoral countries are expected to grow between 3% and 6% next year while the Indian Sub-Continent itself is forecast to grow by nearly 7%, raising the question as to the extent this region could compensate for trade stagnation elsewhere.

Of course, despite similar populations, the economic size of the Indian Sub-Continent is not comparable to China whose current GDP is almost 6 times bigger than India’s. Whereas industry and construction make up around 26% and agriculture 20% of Indian output, in China the comparable figures are 40% and 7%, which account for its massive imports of both agricultural and industrial bulk materials. At approximately US$4.8 trillion the overall the value of Chinese trade is over four times that of India.