Russia and Ukraine are set to sign an agreement freeing millions of Ukrainian tonnes of grain trapped in the country following February’s invasion. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s office said that there would be a signing ceremony at 4:30pm local time (1330 GMT) in Istanbul on Friday. Talks were brokered by the United Nations and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is set to fly to Istanbul on Thursday evening, according to the New York Times and Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Press Agency. In a statement on its website, the Ukrainian foreign ministry confirmed that talks would resume in Turkey on Friday. “Following negotiations, a document can be signed that will contain the obligations of the parties regarding the safe operation of the export routes in the Black Sea,” the Ukrainian diplomats said, adding: “The Ukrainian delegation will support only those decisions that will guarantee the security of the southern regions of Ukraine, the strong positions of the Ukrainian armed forces in the Black Sea, and the safe export of Ukrainian agricultural products to the world markets.“

According to the Economist, a deal would create two co-ordination centers to inspect and oversee the passage of cargo ships in and out of Ukrainian ports. The centers would be staffed by officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN and based in Istanbul and, possibly, in Odessa. Citing diplomats, the BBC said that Russia agreed to a truce while shipments move. Turkey and the UN would inspect ships, to allay Russian fears of weapons smuggling. The European Union already said on Wednesday it would ease its sanctions against key Russian banks as part of diplomatic efforts to restart Ukraine grain shipments from Black Sea ports. The stakes are high as there is anywhere from 18 to 20 MMT or more Ukrainian grain stuck in the country and unable to be exported due to the ongoing fighting in the country and mines in the Black Sea imperiling ships. A deal may also open the way for several big bulkers trapped in Ukrainian ports since the war began there on 24 February to leave the country.

Ukraine is among the world’s largest grain exporters and their inability to participate in the global market has contributed to the recent rise in grain prices and contributed to worries about a global food shortage. It is also unclear how quickly exports could restart. The Wall Street Journal reported Ukraine has increased the number of mines near its Black Sea ports to prevent Russian attacks. International Transport Workers’ Federation secretary general Stephen Cotton told TradeWinds earlier this month that clearing the mines would take time. “We will probably need the navies of the world to come help us with mine-sweeping, it won’t be easily done,” he said during the Turkish Maritime Summit in Istanbul. Russia has been accused of stealing Ukrainian grain, with one ship arrested in Turkey and then released two weeks ago. Maritime intelligence company Windward said not only are ships simply turning off their automatic identification systems, also known as “going dark”, when loading allegedly stolen cargoes, but are loading in ship-to-ship transfers to further obscure the cargo’s origins.