The effect of the Ukraine crisis on African food imports and prices is a big worry, the United Nations trade body warns, as previous high cycles for agrifood commodities have caused unrest such as the Arab Spring. “It is unclear to what extent the war will reduce commodity supplies from the Russian Federation and Ukraine, but initial assessments point to a substantive reduction,” said a report by the UN Conference on Trade & Development (UNCTAD). It said Russia and Ukraine together represent 53% of the global trade in sunflower oil and seeds and 27% in wheat. Wheat, corn, barley, colza, sunflower oil, and seeds from the two countries represent 25.9% of imports for Turkey, 23% for China and 13% for India. Africa imported 32% of its wheat worth $3.7bn from Russia from 2018 to 2020 and 12% from Ukraine, costing $1.4bn.

Up to 25 African nations, including many of the least-developed countries, import more than one-third of their wheat from the two countries, and 15 of them more than half. Somalia imported 100% of its wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine, while Benin bought the same total from Russia alone. “Agrifood commodity cycles have coincided with major political events, such as the 2007-2008 food riots and the Arab Spring,” UNCTAD said. “There might be a potential for food insecurity crises in some regions, especially if increased costs of fertilizers and other energy-intensive inputs negatively impact the next agricultural season.” A further rise in fertilizer costs is a significant risk for Africa, as the cost of a major component, urea, had already risen 30% by the end of 2021, it added.

Despite efforts from the West not to disrupt commodity supplies, freight forwarders currently recommend not booking overland shipments between Asia and Europe, the organization said, and shipping would struggle to provide the extra capacity. In 2021, 1.5m ocean containers were shipped by rail from China to Europe. Adding these volumes to Asia-Europe shipping routes would add a 5% to 8% volume increase to the already congested trade, UNCTAD said.

Although container freight rates have not risen since the beginning of the war, it said higher levels than today’s peaks can be expected, with significant impacts on the economy. UNCTAD estimated that container freight rate rises during the pandemic increased global consumer prices by 1.5%, with outsized effects on vulnerable economies.