The capesize bulker spot market reached its highest point in seven weeks after making a leap on Tuesday that analysts tied to iron ore exports picking up out of Brazil and Australia. The Baltic Exchange’s Capesize 5TC, a spot-rate average across five key routes, jumped 31.3% on Tuesday to $16,540 per day, marking the highest average since 2 August when the figure came in at $16,347 per day.

“Iron ore exports have surged over the last week, with Australian shipments up by 18% week on week to 18.9 MMT, while Brazilian shipments increased by 11% to 7.2 MMT,” Clarksons Securities analyst Frode Morkedal wrote in a note on Tuesday. “Steel output is rising, with daily steel output increasing by 3.3% in the first 10 days of September compared to the end of August, and rebar inventories are decreasing.”

The average spot rate for a roundtrip voyage on the C10 route between Australia and Asia leapt 55.7% to $19,577 per day on Tuesday to attain a three-month high since registering $16,675 per day on 21 June. A round trip on the C14 route between Brazil and China also saw a huge gain on Tuesday, skyrocketing 26.9% to $16,300 per day.

Morkedal said China’s zero-Covid-19 policy and the shaky real estate market remain substantial risk factors, but Clarksons Securities has taken the view that the country’s already announced large stimulus packages will keep the market afloat. China’s National Party Congress will meet on 16 October, and new infrastructure financing or housing-loan policy may be announced, according to Bloomberg.

Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta also noted Tuesday’s large spike in capesize spot rates but also pointed out an ongoing ‘wide disconnect” in earnings power between eco-design capesizes and scrubber-fitted capesizes. He mentioned that the eco-design capesizes were getting average spot rates higher than $22,000 per day, while their scrubber-fitted counterparts were achieving above $27,000 per day.

Average spot rates for the smaller bulkers moved mostly sideways on Tuesday because of limited fixture activity, according to BRS Brokers. The Panamax 5TC edged up $293 per day on Tuesday to $18,206 per day, while the Supramax 10TC picked up $325 per day on Tuesday to land at $17,382 per day, according to Baltic Exchange data.