19-08-2022 Ukraine Wheat Exports, Howe Robinson
Following last month’s UN-brokered agreement to create a Black Sea corridor for grain shipments from Ukraine, around 25 vessels have loaded and sailed away from the area.
So far, this trade has been carried almost exclusively in Mini-bulkers and Handy size tonnage mostly undertaking short voyages to such countries as Algeria, Djibouti,
Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, and Yemen though there have been the occasional shipment to France, Italy, and UK.
The Ukrainian grain season in a normal year should now be in full swing and clearly the sub-Cape market is suffering from this lack of regular cargo as only a fraction of last year’s export of 20 MMT wheat is likely to be shipped out of the country.
It is likely that shipments will continue to be limited to short haul destinations with last year’s larger Asan buyers Indonesia (3 MMT), Pakistan (1.3 MMT), and Bangladesh (0.8 MMT) likely to source from Australia and Canada/USA.
At least the release of some wheat cargoes from Ukraine has led to a reduction in wheat prices from historic highs with FOB price for wheat ex US Gulf declining 37% from its peak of $578/ton earlier this summer to $365/ton by the end of last week.