19-04-2022 China releases latest economic data, Braemar ACM
China’s GDP expanded 4.8% YoY in the first quarter, according to the latest figures released on Monday. Although still in expansionary territory, this remains below growth levels recorded before the pandemic. Fresh data for March, however, showed slowdowns in activity in several sectors of the Chinese economy, amid global geopolitical tensions and a resurgence of Covid-19 lockdowns.
Cumulative investment in real estate from January-March grew by only 0.7% YoY, down from a rise of 3.7% in the January-February period. Initiated floor space totaled 215.6 cumulative square meters in the first three months of 2022, down 20.3% YoY. Floor space under construction grew by only 1% YoY, down from 1.8% in January-February and the lowest growth figure on record.
The financial sector’s reserve requirement ratio was lowered by 25 basis points to an average of 8.1% on Friday as the government look to stimulate activity. This should release an estimated 540 billion yuan ($83.25 billion) in long-term liquidity. Although positive, the effects of these policies take several months to filter through the economy.
China’s steel-intensive automobile industry also declined, with production contracting by 9.0% YoY. The sector has been hit by high prices for key inputs and lockdowns affecting output capacity.
Fixed asset investment, however, increased by 15.6% YoY in manufacturing and 9.6% in infrastructure, although both metrics decelerated from January-February growth of 20.9% and 10.5% respectively.
On Monday, Chinese authorities unveiled 23 measures to aid the economy. These include amendments to lending guidance for banks to encourage support for government infrastructure projects and the property sector, as well as general pledges to provide more credit and financial support to industries hit by the pandemic.
According to the latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s coal output totaled 395.7 MMT in March, up 15% YoY. This represents 12.77 MMT of output a day, the highest average daily output on record. Coal production in Q1 totaled 1.08 BMT, increasing by 10% YoY. China’s state planner is targeting average daily coal output of 12.6 MMT in 2022, expanding total domestic production capacity by 300 MMT. It is also aiming to increase government coal reserves to 5% of local consumption. These targets are part of a wider policy to improve China’s energy security and insulate users from volatile international markets by developing domestic production and storage capacity.
Despite lengthy safety checks at Chinese coal mines in Q4 last year before receiving approval to ramp up production, some accidents affecting production have started to occur. Earlier this week it was reported a fire has caused 3 mines to suspend operations. While this is temporary, it could provide increased short-term interest in the seaborne market.
China imported 19.2 MMT of coal in March, decreasing by 24.6% YoY. This is the lowest volume of March coal imports since 2017.