The laws of supply and demand work on the axiom that if there is a shortage of goods or services the price of those goods or services goes up. In a free market, sellers have the freedom to charge what they want, and buyers have the freedom to choose to pay or not. If enough choose not to, the seller either adapts his prices, or loses business to a cheaper rival. In container shipping, where congestion at ports and inland distribution has reduced the available capacity of ships and equipment in a period of strong demand, those laws have held. Prices have risen as desperate shippers seek to find slots for their cargo.

But recent moves, kicked off by CMA CGM and followed by Hapag-Lloyd, appear to be defying economic reality. Prices, the two lines said, were high enough and they would not impose any further general rate increases on spot cargo for five months. That is the maritime equivalent to leaving money on the table and raises questions about why they may be doing it. The explanations given by the two lines leave many of those questions unanswered. CMA CGM said it wanted to prioritize its long-term relationship with its customers. Hapag-Lloyd said it thought the market had peaked and hoped that rates would calm down. On the face of it, both responses show a remarkable level of altruism not usually seen in any business, far less container shipping, but both are also quite facile. No company would want to not prioritize its long-term relationship with customers, and if the market has peaked, prices will stabilize or retrench without the need to do anything.

Hapag-Lloyd chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen had previously warned that if the carrier did not price at the market rate, its booking system would be overwhelmed in a day. If rivals continue to apply market rates while CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd do not, they face being swamped with orders. If they chose to take cargo on a first-come, first-served basis, rather than let pricing settle what volumes are taken, shippers able and willing to buy freight at any price — those with $1m of cargo in a single box care little about a $25,000 freight rate — will be in competition with those that got there first.

There may be a certain logic to this. Both carriers have put a focus on their long-term contracts. And with a lack of capacity driving up rates, what better way to encourage shippers towards long-term contracts than the promises of carriage. Now, those who are prepared to commit to volumes for the long run will be prioritized over those that can pay the most. And what better time to be converting spot market players to long-term contract customers than when the market is at its peak. If spot rates do eventually come down, those customers have volumes locked in at strong contract rates.

Freight rates are expected to turn. Figures from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index showed rates for Asia-Europe rose just 0.4% while the transpacific was flat. We may already be at, or near, the peak. Volumes for the holiday season will have been booked and paid for already, and October’s Golden Week may see a chance for some easing of congestion. It could well be that having called the peak, these carriers have cleverly worked some marketing magic to appear as sympathetic to the pain felt by their customers while driving them to keep paying elevated prices for longer.

If that is the case, the laws of supply and demand remain unbroken.