The orderbook is ever evolving but one of the features of 2022 has been the phasing out of VLOC’s following the delivery of the last 325,000 DWT Guibamax in September. However, the VLOC fleet itself has skyrocketed since 2010 from just 75 vessels of 18 MDWT to 265 vessels of 82 MDWT today (up a massive 350% in 12 years). As a consequence, Capesize tonnage at 25 MDWT represents 33% of the total orderbook having been as high as 50% of the orderbook during 2018-19.

We expect deliveries in 2022 at around 350 vessels to be broadly like 2021 (368) but with less VLOC’s (just 5 in 2022 compared to 16 in 2021) and Capesize (around 45 vs 63 in 2021), total gross deadweight across dry cargo will be reduced in 2022 at approximately 30 MDWT (36.4 MDWT – 2021). Demolition this year at just 27 vessels of 3 MDWT (7 MDWT – 2021) has fallen to its lowest level for 15 years. Net fleet growth will be around 27 MDWT (+2.9% y-o-y) compared to 3.5% in 2021. With some slippage the nominal orderbook for 2023 will number around 400 vessels of 35 MDWT similar to 2022 though looking further forward 2024 consists of only 300 vessels of 25mt.Total deadweight on order is 70 MDWT compromising around 120 Capesize, 50 Post Panamax , 195 Kamsarmax, 255 Supra-Ultramax and 190 Handysize (20-45,000 DWT). The major change in the structure of the orderbook is that 39 MDWT (60% of the Orderbook) is now being built in China, the highest percentage on record, compared to 22 MDWT (33%) in Japan, 4 MDWT (6%) in the Philippines and a few others elsewhere including just 2 Capesize in all the Korean yards. With some of the bigger Japanese yards building significant numbers of Container vessels until end 2025, China will continue to dominate dry cargo ordering in the short to medium term.

The Howe Robinson Dry Index (HRDI) currently stands at 1517 the peak coming in May at 3,281 and the low being 959 at the end of August: year to date average being 1900 about 1,000 less than 2021. With the increased inflow of Post Panamax (40 vessels) this year the Panamax/Post Panamax sector has grown at a faster pace than Supra-Ultramax to a total of 262 MDWT, thus our only change in sector weightings for 2023 will be to adjust the Panamax upwards to 28% whilst reducing the Supramax element by 1 percentage point to 22%. Capesize continues at 38% whilst the 2,820 Handysize of 110 MDWT remain an important component of overall dry cargo direction at 12%.