The momentum from the record monthly corn exports from Brazil in August (7.5 MMT) and positive export figures to date for September has certainly helped the Panamax market in particular recover off its yearly lows $11,000 towards the end of August to $19,000 earlier this week.

As sharply increased exports to the EU, North Africa and the Middle East attest Brazil is clearly picking up the sales for corn which would otherwise have been sourced from Ukraine on smaller sizes albeit that shipments from Ukraine are usually at their busiest in Q4 and Q1. Thus, in the eight months to August, Brazil has more than doubled corn exports to Iran (3.8 MMT up 2.3 MMT YOY), doubled to Egypt (2.4 MMT) and all but doubled to Spain (2 MMT), Japan (1.3 MMT), South Korea (0.9 MMT) and Portugal (0.5 MMT). Israel at 0.4 MMT is well ahead of last year’s 0.1 MMT. Given the longer sea miles most of these shipments to the above-mentioned destinations have been transported in Panamax tonnage. On the smaller sizes Colombia has also been a strong importer of late, the 1.1 MMT imports to August nearly triple that of the same period in 2021.

Last year Brazilian corn exports peaked in August at 4.3 MMT before rapidly falling back for the balance of the year; this year by contrast corn exports for September and October are forecast to be double that of the combined 4.5 MMT of those two months in 2021 which should continue to provide the Sub Cape market with much needed support until the US grain market starts to provide additional cargo from Q4 onwards. Strong Brazilian corn exports contrast with a more subdued Brazilian soybean export season which at 66 MMT in the eight months to August is running more than 6 MMT lower than last year.