The capesize bulker market has been on a downward trend for weeks as China’s real estate troubles continue and port congestion eases, but it should turn around if one thing does not happen, market sources say. The Baltic Exchange’s capesize 5TC spot-rate estimate across five key routes has slid 64% since 18 July to $8,783 on Tuesday, marking the lowest level since late January. But Breakwave Advisors, a New York-based dry bulk ETF-trading platform, is confident that the market will soon do an about-face, provided that the second largest economy on earth does not crumble. “Our view is that absent a historic collapse in the Chinese economy, upcoming stimulus efforts will provide the catalyst for major restocking of iron ore, and thus, a swift jump in dry bulk demand,” it said in a report on Tuesday.

Australian miner Rio Tinto fixed one unnamed capesize on Tuesday and another three to-be-nominated capesize on Monday to haul 170,000 tonnes of iron ore each from Dampier, Australia, to Qingdao, China. The mining giant hired the ships at rates that ranged from $7.50 per tonne to $7.85 per tonne. The four vessels are scheduled to take on ore from 30 August to 2 September. A month ago, Rio Tinto hired an unnamed capesize to move the same quantum of ore on the same route at $10.85 per tonne. Loading was set for 30 July to 1 August.

The country’s floundering real estate sector has essentially stalled while facing billions of dollars of debt and a mortgage crisis, causing a sharp drop in iron-ore demand that has in turn stung the capesize market. Meanwhile, supply has increased in recent weeks as more vessels get freed from port congestion, the Breakwave analysis said.

Capesize rates for benchmark iron-ore routes from Brazil have also dropped steadily due to China’s wheezing real estate industry that has seen Chinese developer Evergrande fall into $330bn of debt. The freight rate for the C3 voyage from Tubarao, Brazil, to Qingdao, China, has plummeted 38% since 18 July to $20.044 per tonne on Tuesday. At the same time, the average spot rate for the C14 roundtrip leg between West Australia and China has declined 69% to $6,300 per day.

The capesize market “will suffer some more” as China’s economic struggles continue and the typical summer lull for dry bulk shipping persists, but the EU’s new ban on Russian coal should help it recover, broker Giuseppe Rosano said. “Russia traditionally supplies the EU with around 70% of its coal requirements, therefore importers will need to source supply from further afield which could be positive for capesize tonne-mile demand,” said Rosano, founder of London-based broking house Alibra Shipping.