16-03-2021 Baltic Dry Index breaks 2,000 points for first time in five months, By Holly Birkett, TradeWinds
The Baltic Dry Index has risen above the 2,000-point level for the first time in five months, signalling that sentiment in dry-bulk markets is riding high once again. The index rose by a further 34 points on Tuesday and was assessed at 2,017 points, which is the highest level seen since 7 October last year. Growth in the index has been steady since mid-February but has faltered over the past week, caused by a slight correction in the capesize bulker market. The BDI’s current level is also almost double what it has averaged over the past ten years. The index has averaged 1,171 points since this point in 2016 and just 1,115 points over the past decade.
Rising capesize spot rates helped fuel the BDI’s rise on Tuesday, as well as a big leap forward in the panamax market. Baltic Exchange panellists on Tuesday assessed the capesize 5TC benchmark, the weighted average of spot rates on five major routes, $220 higher than Monday at $17,274 per day. The upwards assessment came on the back of improving market conditions in the Atlantic and steady trading activity in both the Pacific and Brazilian markets. But the BDI’s rise was also aided by a $897 upwards assessment to the Baltic’s weighted-average panamax spot rate, which was assessed at $21,349 per day. The assessment could even rise further.
“Expectations of further rises to come as fresh demand not just from the Americas but from most load origins along with strong period interest lent support to this recent sentiment,” the Baltic Exchange noted in its daily market report on Tuesday. Panamaxes have fallen slightly from the 14-year high of $22,659 per day on 16 February, but have been trending slowly upwards again since March began.
Meanwhile, average supramax rates have been stuck at a plateau for almost a week now, according to Baltic Exchange assessments. Panellists assessed the supramax 10TC, the weighted average of spot rates on 10 key routes, at $22,865 per day on Tuesday, $44 lower than the previous day. “A story of two halves today with sentiment remaining strong in the Asian and Indian Ocean arenas by contrast much of the Atlantic saw negative movement,” the Baltic said in its report.
“Brokers saying that rates were dropping from key areas such as the US Gulf with limited fresh enquiry and the list of available tonnage increasing.”
The capesize 5TC assessment contributes 40% to the calculation of the BDI, while weighted-average spot rates for panamaxes and supramaxes each contribute 30%.