Indonesia’s new coal export ban is affecting only small miners, so the impact on dry bulk shipping could be minimal, sources and analysts say. The Energy and Mineral Resources ministry said last week that 71 coal miners had failed to meet the obligation to sell 25% of the coal mined into the domestic market. Of that number, 48 have been banned from exporting coal. The domestic market obligation aims to ensure the local power plants have enough coal to feed on. The ban coincides with the European Union’s ban on Russia-origin coal, which also took effect on August 10.

The ministry has not published the names of the miners banned, and the Indonesian Coal Mining Association said it is not aware of any of its members, made up largely of major producers in the country, having been banned. A coal industry source said the ban has not affected any of the country’s major coal producers. “Big names, such as Adaro Energy, have met their domestic market obligation. It seems only small private coal miners which have been banned,” he said.

Since only small miners have been banned, it should affect only a small number of shippers, said Ralph Leszczynski, head of research at Banchero Costa. “If that is the case, then it should not have too much of an impact on the market,” he said.

Two shipbrokers in Indonesia have not seen any impact from the ban on shipping activities locally. “There are several ships loaded with coal waiting for monsoon weather to clear before sailing to India, one of the major coal importers for Indonesian coal now,” said one, adding that tug and barge activities in Kalimantan, the main coal mining area in Indonesia, remain vibrant.

An outright ban on all Indonesian coal exports remains unlikely for now, according to last week’s BIMCO report. Despite legislators’ concern over shrinking domestic coal stocks, inventories in the state’s power utility company PLN remain above 4.5 MMT, a level considered to be secure, a report shows.

Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of coal, exported 441.5 MMT coal last year, equal to 31% of global coal exports, according to BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen. All exports are moved by ship and in 2021 were equal to 8% of global dry bulk cargo demand.