Shipping researchers believe 2023 could see a return to high newbuilding ordering levels in all vessel sectors. A new report by UK valuation platform VesselsValue and its Norwegian research subsidiary ViaMar suggests bulker owners will lead the charge back to shipyards next year, potentially endangering a favorable vessel supply outlook. The fourth quarter of 2021 saw ordering activity reduce sharply across most shipping markets following high activity in the first parts of the year, the companies said. “This activity is the principal reason behind newbuilding prices rising to levels not seen since 2008,” VesselsValue and ViaMar added.

Tanker and bulker ordering remains quiet, but container ships and gas carriers have stayed in high demand through the second quarter of 2022, though at a lower level compared to 2021, they said. But the researchers believe 2023 will see high levels of ordering activity across all vessel sectors, led primarily by bulkers, with shipyards maintaining strong negotiating positions as orderbooks begin to fill. “The high levels of activity over the past two years have meant yards have built their orderbooks well into 2024,” the companies said. As container ship appetite declines, interest in other sectors is unlikely to fully replace it, with newbuilding prices forecast to cool off, they added. The report argues steel plate prices are likely to follow a similar downward trajectory, following what has been exceedingly strong development through 2020 and 2021.

Turning to tanker markets, VesselsValue and ViaMar said that following low newbuilding contracting, ship supply should further reduce, with a significant portion of the Russian commercial fleet facing sanctions. Earnings and tonne-mile demand for tankers are expected to improve as Opec cuts are reversed, and demand returns post-pandemic. “While Russian exports are forecasted to decline, demand for supplies from further afield (US, Middle East) will support rates going forward,” the report states. Earlier in July, Clarksons Research said the capacity of container vessels on order globally has soared past that of tankers and bulk carriers for the first time ever. The UK company said record contracting of boxships has seen close to 900 units of 7m teu added to shipyards’ books since the final three months of 2020. This has led to a record high dwt-equivalent figure of 76m dwt on order, beating tankers on 35m dwt and bulkers on 69m dwt. Tankers and bulkers make up 75% of the world fleet capacity on the water, but newbuilding deals have been limited. The tanker orderbook has shrunk to its smallest level in 25 years and is at a record low of just 5% of fleet capacity, Clarksons Research calculated. Bulkers stand at close to an 18-year low, just 7% of the fleet.