Since its peak on 10 February, Chinese iron ore prices have fallen by ~10% amidst fears of domestic investigations into iron ore inventories and trading. The developments follow as China’s state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated it would investigate the commodity exchange and key ports due to concerns of price manipulation given the combination of rapidly rising iron prices and domestic inventories at multi-year highs. Weekly Chinese iron ore inventories in port is currently quoted at 156m tonnes – the highest figure seen since 2018 when iron ore inventories peaked at 162m tonnes. In our view, recent event mirrors 2021, when Chinese authorities vowed to punish price manipulation and sent iron ore prices lower.