The capesize bulker market staged a rebound on Wednesday after a several-week plummet that was followed by almost two weeks of modest gains. The Baltic Exchange’s Capesize 5TC spot-rate average across five key routes jumped 45% on Wednesday to $12,977 per day, marking the highest figure in five weeks. This average had plummeted to $2,505 per day on 31 August from $24,603on 18 July, before finding its way up to $8,952 per day on Tuesday. The C14 route for a round voyage between China and Brazil to carry iron ore lent the most support to the skyrocketing 5TC by leaping 36% to $12,875 per day on Wednesday. The C10 route between Western Australia and China also had a good day on Wednesday, rallying 32.7% to $16,136 per day on Wednesday for round-trip voyages.

Rio Tinto hired Ocean Longevity’s 171,000-dwt Ocean Queen (built 2004) on Wednesday to carry iron ore from Dampier, Australia, to Qingdao, China, at $9.60 per tonne after loading it from 28 to 30 September. That represents a rise from $9 per tonne on Tuesday when the Australian miner fixed Berge Bulk’s 175,700-dwt Berge Orizaba (built 2014) to ship the same quantum of ore on the same route.

Amid the spot rate gains, forward freight agreements (FFAs) fell on Wednesday, though the futures curve still pointed higher to the end of the year. October contracts dropped $607 to reach $16,607 per day, while November FFAs declined $1,232 to $16,786 per day. December contracts slid $571 to $15,679 per day.

The capesize market certainly saw big rate moves on Wednesday, but average spot rates are still low historically and seasonally, said John Kartsonas, founder of asset manager Breakwave Advisors, which runs a dry-bulk exchange-traded fund. “If only you think that this week last year spot Capesize rates were on their way to $100,000, ooofff.” he told TradeWinds. He said a storm in the North China Sea that is tightening supply on routes from Australia to China is giving capesize rates a boost. “Then, on the macro front, China’s real estate sector got some positive news in the last few days with the resumption of real estate projects which could potentially lead to higher demand for iron ore,” Kartsonas said. “We are also getting into October loadings, which historically have proven to be relatively high, while West Africa bauxite will also come into play as the rainy season ends.”

These factors have managed to pull capesize rates out of the abyss, but the market still has room for improvement in the fourth quarter, he said. “We remain of the view that we will see capesize spot rates into the mid-$20,000s in the next few months,” Kartsonas said. The Capesize 5TC provided a “standout performance” on Wednesday amid a recovery in sentiment, but the rate just puts the market back to the low levels of four weeks ago, said Ulf Bergman, market research analyst at Shipfix.

He noted that the smaller ships also had “more modest gains” on Wednesday. The Panamax 5TC gained $643 per day on Wednesday to reach $19,309 per day, while the Supramax 10TC picked up $234 per day to land at $16,559 per day.