After much more favorable growing conditions this season, Brazil’s corn exports look set to bounce back strongly from last year’s drought ravaged figure of just 20 MMT; though unlikely to exceed the 2019 export record of 43 MMT they will probably exceed the 2020 figure of 34 MMT as Brazil looks to ship more quantities to those countries previously reliant on Ukrainian corn.

Though we are only in the early part of the season already exports to date are up +2 MMT y-o-y to Atlantic destinations and +2.8 MMT to destinations east of Suez. It is notable that with longer sea miles especially to destinations in the Mediterranean and Egypt, a much greater proportion of Brazil’s corn cargo is being carried on Panamax/Kamsarmax/Post Panamax tonnage; this may be in part to changed trading patterns, longer sea miles to Atlantic destinations and somewhat cheaper freight available in the larger sectors.

With such a significant structural change in the Brazilian Atlantic corn trades, one might have expected panamax rates to receive a timely boost from all this additional cargo; however, with other changes in trading patterns, in particular coal, there have been on average an additional 175 Panamax/Kamsarmax open in June/July in the Atlantic compared to 2021 thus more balanced tonnage supply has more than negated the increases in Brazilian corn flow/longer sea miles.