Thus far in March, benchmark Supramax spot rates have averaged USD21.3k/day and is up a staggering 178% from an average of USD7.7k/day in March 2020 – the strongest March since the inception of the BSI 58 in 2016 and at levels previously seen in 2010.

Mid-size bulk carriers are generally exposed to a wider variety of cargoes than Capesizes (e.g., agribulks, minor bulks, iron ore & coal) and we believe the recent uptick for mid-size bulkers is attributable to a broader set of factors, largely driven by re-opened economies, re-stocking, coal & agriculture demand.

USDA’s recent numbers suggest that 2.8 MMT of grains (corn, sorghum, soybeans & wheat) were inspected and/or weighed for exports in the week ending 3 March 2021 – up from 1.9 MMT in comparable week last year.

Moreover, as China’s import of Australian thermal coal has ebbed down to zero, other routes have taken hold, as seen by US increasing its Q4 2020 coal exports to China to 17.4 MMT, up 748% QOQ and 252% YOY.

More mid-size bulker demand could yet come, as China ramps up its imports of scrap metal after lifting the ban on the commodity in early 2021.

Albeit a moderate impact, China’s push towards a greener future, and less reliance on Australian coal, could be a positive for the mid-size bulk segment and a negative for the larger sizes.