US ports continue to set records in throughput ahead of the peak season, with demand expected to stay strong even as the economy shows signs of cooling. Ports saw a surge in activity this spring as a slowdown in cargo from Chinese factories closed by draconian lockdowns gave them a chance to clear built-up congestion, according to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker report. Shipments brought forward to avoid any issues related to the US west coast labour contract negotiations may have also contributed to volumes, it said.

“Cargo volume is expected to remain high as we head into the peak shipping season, and it is essential that all ports continue to operate with minimal disruption,” said NRF vice-president Jonathan Gold. “Supply chain challenges will continue throughout the remainder of the year, and it is particularly important that labour and management at west coast ports remain at the bargaining table and reach an agreement.”

US ports handled 2.4m teu in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 6% from April and up 2.7% year on year, according to the report. It also set a record for the number of containers imported in a single month since NRF began tracking imports in 2002, topping the 2.3m teu in March. The NRF projects figures of 2.3m teu for June, up 4.8% from the same month last year. That would bring the first half of the year to 13.5m teu, a 5.4% increase on 2021. July figures are also forecast to be up by more than 5% on the past year.

The outlook for the remainder of the year shows a slight slowdown after the extremely high levels of imports recorded in 2021. The forecast shows August imports being flat year on year and warns of declines from September onwards. “The year-over-year declines during the second half of the year contrast with unusually high numbers during the same period in 2021, but volumes remain high, and the full year is still expected to see a net increase over 2021,” the NRF said. An analysis of US customs data by Sea-Intelligence indicates there may be the beginnings of a slowdown in consumer demand, particularly for consumer durables such as furnishings and household equipment. “The US consumer spending data unfortunately does not provide us with any definitive answer as to the strength of the looming peak season, but it does provide us with a very clear message that the unprecedented strength of the durables goods consumption is slowing down in recent months,” said chief executive Alan Murphy. “We’re not seeing anything that looks like a boom or a crash in the market, but rather a market that looks headed for a gradual return to the pre-pandemic levels.”

Figures from Container Trades Statistics showed that container volumes continued to fall back in May, down 2.8% year on year, the fourth consecutive month of declines. According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development, the value of global trade rose to $7.7trn in the first quarter of 2022, but Unctad warned that this was driven by rising prices rather than by increased volumes, which rose at a much lower rate. It said that while growth was expected to remain positive, it had slowed in the second quarter, and that the impact of rising interest rates and the winding down of economic stimulus packages would likely have a negative impact on growth in the second half of the year. The headwinds in the demand picture are also visible in relation to vessel utilization figures, according to Sea-Intelligence. On the transpacific, capacity utilization peaked in February 2022 and has since shown a sharp decline. “The overall conclusion is that the development in vessel utilization is on a negative trend,” Mr Murphy said. “This lends further explanatory power as to why we have seen spot rates decline in recent months. Unless demand picks up unexpectedly, or more capacity is taken out of the market, it appears likely that lower vessel utilization will continue to lend negative pressure to the spot rates.”