Iron ore exports from major producers improved in May, but most miners will need to lift run rates over the second half of 2021 to meet their sales guidance, according to analysis using S&P Global Platts’ tradeflow software, cFlow, by Platts Analytics.

Shipments from Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, Fortescue Metals Group and Roy Hill, and Saldanha port in South Africa, reached 99.41 million mt in May, the highest level so far this year, up 7.8% month on month and a 3% increase year on year. This took January-May exports to 465.01 million mt, up 1.7% on year, according to cFlow.

June is normally one of the strongest months of the year for shipment volumes as the Australian financial year ends on June 30. BHP and Fortescue will want to optimize revenues and achieve full-year sales guidance before closing the book on the year, while Rio Tinto and Vale – which use a calendar financial year – will want to post solid first-half results. A strong June is usually followed by a weaker July due to producers needing to rebuild stocks.

The data should be used as an indication only and may not capture all vessel movements and volumes.

The generally weak export performance this year, coupled with strong steel production in China, has resulted in tight supply of mainstream medium-grade fines. This has helped keep the Platts 62% Fe benchmark at high levels, averaging $205.70/mt CFR in May and reaching $217/mt on June 10.