The “partial blockade” of Ukraine appears to be over, but the US is warning the country might be on the verge of war with Russia. Ukrainian officials lifted restrictions on ships transiting the Black Sea and the nearby Sea of Azov on Friday, following their denouncements that Russian naval exercises on the Black Sea as part of a hybrid war against the country. “The movement of ships by recommended routes to the seaports of Ukraine in the Sea of Azov is open,” Ukraine’s seaport authority said in a report cited by Reuters. The move comes amid evidence that the winds of war may already be impacting trade.

An analysis by VesselsValue found dry bulk exports from Ukraine are on track to fall by 44% in February after what it described as a particularly strong January and are 15% off their typical pace. Oil exports, the valuation service said, are forecast to fall by 45% from January and are 37% lower than normal, though oil demand remains weak globally. Ukraine’s LPG exports appear to be fairing the best, VesselsValue said, but are still on course for a 27% drop this month and are behind yearly averages by a quarter. “The data shows that trade from the Black Sea is suffering at least a partial blockade,” VesselsValue analyst Vivek Srivastava said in a note.

Though it denies its intention to invade its eastern neighbor, Russia has reportedly amassed more than 100,000 troops at Ukraine’s border in recent weeks and has mustered its naval forces for drills worldwide. On Friday, US secretary of state Anthony Blinken said a Russian invasion “could begin at any time”, including in the next week before the Winter Olympics in Beijing conclude on 20 February. Blinken’s statement was the latest in a string of warnings from UK and US officials on Russia’s intentions.

Should Russia invade, the US has threatened the country with “the mother of all sanctions”, which would impact the country’s oil and natural gas industries. Russia currently provides Europe as much as 30% of its LNG supply, which analysts have warned could create a “gas crisis” for the continent with little supply to export and prices rising.