Due to heavy rains, Vale has partially halted train service on the Estrada de Ferro Vitória a Minas railway, the production in the Southeastern (21% of production last twelve months) and Southern Systems (18%). While all complexes within the Southern system was affected, Vale reports that only Brucutu and Mariana has been impacted amongst the Southeastern systems, which would see our estimated impact on production decrease to ~30%. Seasonally, heavy rains should be expected, and we note it as a positive that Vale reiterates its 2022 production guidance of 320-335 MMT. However, when coupled with the recent Indonesian export ban and the upcoming winter Olympics, the development could be seen as another blow strengthening the short-term headwinds seen for the space.