A scramble for commodities could lead to a continued surge in the markets the next months. Some unusual trades like Corn being shipped from Brazil at this time of year, increased Wheat exports from India, Russian Wheat going to China and increased Steel Product exports from China have been reported the last week. Most likely there are such unusual trades seen for all commodities directly affected by the invasion…

We have pointed to increasing macro risks developing from the second half of this year and onwards for some time. The current situation further worsens the outlook in this regard, with weakening outlook for grains being thrown in as well….

One such risk is the lead rising or falling energy prices has on economic growth. We are not sure whether dry bulk demand growth will weaken enough this year for earnings to be materially weaker than last year. If it happens, we think we will see it in Q4, maybe already in Q3. However, in 2023 there is too much negative on the demand side to expect earnings at similarly high levels to 2021 and the most part of 2022…