Canadian grain exports pick up in October, following successful wheat harvest

According to AXS vessel tracking, Canada exported 4.7 MMT of Agri bulk on bulk carriers in October, an increase of 27.8% YoY. Canada’s 2022/23 wheat harvest, which ran from August-October, is projected by the USDA’s WASDE at 35 MMT, 14.2% above the 5-year average. This is a 57% increase from last season’s crop, when widespread drought caused a 31.4% YoY drop in yields.

Last marketing year (August-July), Canada’s seaborne grain exports totaled 26.4 MMT, down 42.4% YoY. The USDA expects Canada to export 74% of this season’s wheat crop, at 26 MMT. Around 75% of Canadian grain is exported from the country’s North Pacific coast, mostly to markets in Asia. China was the largest importer in October, at 1.7 MMT, followed by Japan, which imported 580k tonnes.

Of Canada’s grain exports, Panamax liftings increased by 35.6% YoY to 2.4 MMT, compared to a 28.6% YoY increase to 850k for Handies, and an increase of 21.4% YoY to 1.4 MMT for Supras.

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Turkish coal imports rise sharply in October

Turkey imported 3.9 MMT of coal in October, an increase of 95% YoY as low natural gas supply and high prices have driven Turkish utilities to burn more coal. According to data from Energy Exchange Istanbul, Turkey’s coal power generation in October was 54.2% higher YoY, accounting for 44.9% of total electricity generated. Electricity generated from natural gas was down 55.3% YoY in October, with its share of total power generation falling from 42.4% in October 2021 to 20.1% last month. Dry weather has also led to a fall in hydropower generation, with electricity generated in October 62% lower than the peak in May.

Much of this coal has come from Russia, which is being offered at a steep discount to those still able to buy it. The share of Turkish coal imports originating from Russia has increased from 35% in October 2021 to 67% last month. More expensive imports from Colombia, Turkey’s other main source of coal, decreased 0.7% YoY to 700k tonnes in October. Most of this new Russian trade has been shipped on Panamaxes. In total, Panamaxes discharged 1.5 MMT of coal in Turkey in October, a more than sixfold YoY increase. Capes saw a smaller increase in volumes of 30.7% YoY to 1.6 MMT.