According to Chinese customs authorities, iron ore imports for July came in at 91.1 MMT, up 3.1% YOY, taking the YTD total to 626.8 MMT, which is down 3.4% compared to 2021 and 5.0% compared to 2020.

Likewise, coal imports came in at 23.5 MMT, down 22% YOY and down 18.4% YOY YTD, as domestic coal production continues at elevated levels – with the January-June period up 12.6% YOY YTD.

However, we believe all indicators should be on a better trajectory for H2 than last year, as H1 proved unusually strong. While the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated, we still see potential for higher volumes into the stronger H2e and 2023e fueled by Chinese stimulus and return of long-haul Vale volumes.