According to Chinese customs authorities, November saw Chinese iron ore imports rise 7% YOY to 105 MMT. YTD, Chinese iron ore imports now amount to 1,038 MMT, down 3% YOY versus a decrease of 4% by October and an increase of 6% by May. Of note, iron ore imports for November were the highest-ever figure seen for this month, with the strong MOM increase of 15% providing a positive data point following several months of depressed figures.

For November, Chinese coal imports rose to an impressive 35 MMT – up 30% MOM and 197% YOY. YTD, Chinese coal imports are up 10% YOY – having turned around a slow start to the year as imports were down 25% YOY YTD by April. Impressively, the last six months have seen annualized coal imports of 362 MMT, which would post a significant beat on 2020’s record import volume of 304 MMT. However, we note that a combination of import quotas and the upcoming winter Olympics could limit coal imports and consumption near-term, with still elevated domestic coal prices and the upcoming winter season pulling in the opposite direction.