Brazil’s corn exports continue to be very positive with 6.8 MMT exported in September following the monthly record 7.5 MMT in August. To date Brazil has shipped 24.7 MMT and might, if present levels are maintained, break their 2019 export record of 42.8 MMT. Iran has regained its position as Brazil’s top export market at 4.7 MMT with cargo to Spain and Egypt nearly doubling YoY to both be at 3 MMT. Ahead of the USA corn export season, Brazil has exported 2.3 MMT to Japan and 0.6 MMT to South Korea whilst imports to both Colombia (1.5 MMT) and Saudi Arabia( 0.7 MMT) have nearly tripled YoY.

In part, export markets for Brazil’s corn are flourishing due to little export movement from Ukraine. Despite the opening of the humanitarian corridor corn exports from Ukraine totaled just 3 MMT in Q2 vs 6.1 MMT in Q2 2021. Consequently, it is noticeable that certain countries that usually source from Ukraine are now turning to Brazil for their corn: thus, exports to Italy to date have quadrupled to 0.6 MMT, Portugal doubled also to 0.6 MMT whilst with 0.5 MMT shipped to Israel is 0.4 MMT more than last year. In addition, corn exports imports from Brazil to Bangladesh (0.3 MMT) and Morocco (0.3 MMT) compared to negligible shipments to both countries by this time last year.

The expansion of Brazilian corn has certainly impacted on trading patterns, with substantial gains to Iran, Japan South Korea and Saudi fronthaul cargo has risen 5.6 MMT YoY to 12 MMT but it is the increase in the tonnage carrying the trans-Atlantic trade that has seen the greatest change. Typically, Ultra-Supra and Handysize vessels carry two-thirds of the Atlantic trade but with longer sea miles to the Mediterranean and North African ports, Panamax/Kamsarmax tonnage are now dominating with this sector transporting 7.2 MMT of Brazil’s to date (2.8 MMT – 2021). As a result, far more Panamax/Kamsarmax vessels are available for employment within the Atlantic than is customary (we calculate up to an additional 150 Panamax-Kamsarmax compared to last year) and it is probably that this additional tonnage supply is acting as a brake on freight rates in the wake of much higher corn volumes from Brazil.