For the two first months of 2021, Chinese coal imports amounted to 35.4 MMT and was thus down 14.0% YOY – the lowest figure seen since 2016. In our view, the decline could be attributed to the Indonesian export ban and subsequent rise in domestic production, as we estimate that Indonesia accounted for roughly 2/3 of China’s seaborne thermal coal imports during 2021.  In a response to rising domestic coal prices, China’s domestic coal production rose 10% YOY for December – with the incremental production of 35.0 MMT comparing with the monthly average import volume of 25.7 MMT between 2019-2021. We note that relative to Indonesia’s average monthly export volume for 2021, we estimate January at 40% and February above 80% – to us signaling a gradual normalization for the country’s coal exports.