The disruption to global wheat supplies caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has elevated wheat prices to record levels. Prices of Russian 12.5% FOB have reached figures above USD 400/tonne while Australian Premium White (APW) reached USD 380/tonne.

Australian suppliers are expecting a surge in export demand in the near to medium term. Though short-term potential is seen lacking due to already pressured supply chains from an all-time high harvest. Traders see a record breaking 17.2 MMT of grain being shipped from Western Australia in MY 2021/22. The previous record stood at 15.0 MMT last year.

With prices showing no signs of easing, buyers have returned to the market after a week of inactivity, particularly in Asia. Thailand and Philippines buyers issued buy tenders for feed wheat on March 2nd, and South Korea has followed suit for wheat arriving in July.

Corn prices have also rallied as MY 2021/22 is marked by drastic change in buying patterns among Asian buyers. China has been on a grain buying spree to replenish stocks for food security reasons. China has booked 5.0 MMT of wheat for May shipments. Chinese activity has pushed other Asian buyers to buy well ahead of the curve amid supply tightness.