Moody’s Investor Service has issued a 2022 outlook for shipping that it described as “stable”, but the credit rating agency painted a strong picture for the industry heading into the new year. That strength, though, might not eclipse the highs seen in 2021.

US-based Moody’s said next year’s earnings will be “considerably higher than pre-Covid-19 levels” with the container and dry bulk sectors remaining strong, but no longer setting records. Tankers should come off the bottom seen this year. “Earnings for container and dry bulk carriers are at record levels; however, we expect earnings to fall from their 2021 peak but remain high,” said Daniel Harlid, a Moody’s senior analyst. “Still, limited deliveries of new vessels next year will help keep freight rates at elevated levels.”

Shipping’s aggregate total Ebitda is expected to come in at $50.5m for the year, a figure $7.3m lower than 2021, but nearly double 2020 and more than $30m more than 2019. Of the 2022 estimate, $10.3m will come from container shipping. Moody’s said the performance would be driven by fleet growth — 3% for bulkers and container ships, and 2% for tankers — failing to keep up with demand. The agency said dry bulk’s strength will be driven by the low orderbook, while container strength and low leverage will push mergers, acquisitions, and capital investment.

Container ships, though, only have a few years to enjoy the supply-demand imbalance before ships ordered in 2021 make their way into the fleet in 2023 and 2024, posing a downside risk.

For tankers, Moody’s said oil will remain expensive and volatile, while supply growth will be more gradual. The firm said the sector needs scrapping activity to pick up as the fleet of VLCCs continues to age. Without scrapping, improving demand conditions could hold rates down.

Moody’s said the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, with the recent omicron variant prompting travel bans worldwide, remains a threat but did not spend much time elaborating on how it could impact shipping markets moving forward. For containers, analysts and market sources believe omicron could extend the container rally, while it would stymie the little progress tankers have made in recent months.