The market for capesize bulkers leapt forward on Wednesday, surprisingly undeterred by China’s celebration of Golden Week. The Baltic Exchange’s Capesize 5TC basket of spot-rate averages across five key routes jumped 13.8% on Wednesday to $21,175 per day, reaching its highest point since late July. “It’s surprising actually because spot volumes have been somewhat limited this week due to the holidays in the Far East,” Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta told TradeWinds. “It’s a good sign that we’re seeing these moves higher despite the holidays.”

Nokta was not the only market watcher who was surprised the capesize market performing better during Golden Week. “This is a little unexpected since a lot of the Far East is on holiday,” Alibra Shipping founder Giuseppe Rosano told TradeWinds. But the market may be benefitting from Russia sanctions adding tonne-miles to bulker trade routes and China implementing stimulus measures to get the economy moving again, he said. “Hence we are now seeing the stimulus measure coming into fruition,” said Rosano, whose firm is a UK broking house.

Port congestion and low supply are also supporting higher spot rates, he said. The Baltic Exchange’s daily fixture information for Wednesday was not yet available. Capesize spot rates are rising, as expected, and may rally to $30,000 per day as seasonality approaches, said John Kartsonas, founder of asset manager Breakwave Advisors, which runs a dry-bulk exchange-traded fund. “There is more activity in the Atlantic basin for iron ore cargoes and given that due to the recent weakness not a lot of vessels were ballasting, the supply/demand balance has now tilted towards the owner’s favor,” he told Tradewinds. “Indeed, capesize rates are on the rise and it is also helping panamax rates to recover as well.”

The Panamax 5TC rose 4.5% on Tuesday to $19,847 per day. Kartsonas and Rosano kept to their bullish forecasts, though the falling forward freight agreement (FFA) market indicated lower physical rates in the months ahead. November contracts slid 6% on Wednesday to $16,643 per day, while December contracts declined 5% to $15,214 per day and those for January lost 3.3% to land at $9,236 per day. The February numbers came in even lower, falling 2.6% to $6,450 per day. “It takes time to feed through,” Rosano said. “This industry is very fickle.” The futures market is very unpredictable and changes quickly and often, Kartsonas said. “FFA is a sentiment driven market,” he said. “People are cautious cause the whole world is messy.”