Spot rates for capesize bulkers have hit their highest point in three months amid strong fundamentals that may push them even higher — but how high depends on whom you ask. The capesize 5TC assessment, the average spot rate weighted across five benchmark routes, on Thursday surpassed $36,000 per day for the first time since mid-May. The assessment rose by 2.6% on Wednesday’s level and reached $36,608 per day.

The China-Brazil benchmark voyage supported the upswing by gaining $1,650 per day to achieve $34,686 per day, according to the Baltic Exchange. “Indeed, we are slowly moving higher as the supply-demand balance for the end of August and early September looks favorable for capes,” John Kartsonas, founder of US-based asset management advisory firm Breakwave Advisors told TradeWinds. “For now, it is the North Atlantic that is keeping the index from moving closer to the symbolic $40,000 [per day] mark, but I still think the odds are favorable for cape rates to exceed such levels soon.” The futures market currently implies that rates could reach that high by next month.

Capesize forward freight-agreements (FFAs) for September settled at $40,086 per day on Wednesday and, though they suffered a slight sell off on Thursday, remain around the $40,000 level. October FFAs closed at $39,164 per day on Wednesday, but bidding was around the $38,500 level late in the trading day on Thursday. Kartsonas also noted higher spot rates for panamaxes and supramaxes have helped the Baltic Dry Index rise by 58 points to 3,376 points on Thursday. Handysize rates, too, are at multi-year highs. “Now all segments are moving up in tandem,” he said.

Kartsonas said the trend is “not overly surprising as we went through a period of slow activity in July yet without a significant drop in spot rates. Now that there is some more activity it is not surprising that rates move higher from a significantly higher base.”

Stamatis Tsantanis, chief executive of pure-play capesize owner Seanergy Maritime Holdings, expects rates to go well past $40,000 per day as iron-ore miners export more in the second half. Continued port congestion should help keep rates firm, he said. “A sizable amount of dry tonnage is held in congestion, which is not expected to unwind any time soon, therefore we believe that rates should exceed $45,000 to $50,000 in the next months,” he told TradeWinds.

Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans also foresees better capesize spot rates amid robust activity in the Pacific and Atlantic basins that may include taking loads from costlier sub-capesize bulkers. But they may not reach as high as $50,000 per day, he said. “There is much concern on Chinese steel production as a sign of potential weakness, but I would point to increasing non-Chinese steel production and Vale ramping up iron-ore exports,” he told TradeWinds. “I think we will see $40,000 [per day] before we see $30,000.”