It was announced today that the EU has proposed to ban coal imports from Russia, while the details of the ban and timing of the phaseout are still under discussion. According to data from UN Comtrade, the EU imported 68.7 MMT, 57.1 MMT and 44.2 MMT of coal from Russia in 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively. In total, the EU imported 124 MMT of coal in 2019, meaning Russian exports account for c50% of the EU’s overall imports. Furthermore, Russia’s total coal exports were 199.5 MMT, 205.4 MMT and 197.9 MMT in 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively. Among the top coal importers in the EU, we find Germany, the Netherlands, Turkey, and Poland. According to the data, between 2018 and 2020, Germany imported on average ~17.6 MMT of coal from Russia, while the Netherlands imported ~6.0 MMT, Turkey imported ~13.8 MMT, and Poland imported ~11.2 MMT.
 
According to Clarksons, the EU’s seaborne coal imports totaled 138 MMT, 109 MMT, and 67 MMT while total Russian seaborne coal exports were 136 MMT, 150 MMT and 154 MMT in 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively. This compares to global dry bulk and coal trade of 5,200mt and 1,200mt in 2020, respectively. Russian seaborne coal exports therefore contributed to c3% of global dry bulk trade and c12% of global seaborne coal trade, making it a major supplier of coal to the global seaborne trade flow. Should the Russia-EU coal trade fully shift to seaborne imports, it would add roughly 50% to shipping demand. Meanwhile, Russian coal exports could be redirected to further afield, as we believe Asian importers are unlikely to impose similar bans. Thus, such a shift could be a positive to tonne-mile shipping demand for coal trade if aggregate Russian coal export volumes are not severely disrupted by the recent events.